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@unpublished{zhirnov2022b,
	Author = {Andrei Zhirnov and Mert Moral and Evgeny Sedashov},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-11 09:24:52 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-11 09:33:17 -0400},
	Note = {https://github.com/andreizhirnov/data-conscious-marginal-effects},
	Title = {How to use Stata and R code to calculate distribution-weighted average marginal effects (DAME)},
	Year = {2022}}

@unpublished{zhirnov2022a,
	Author = {Andrei Zhirnov and Mert Moral and Evgeny Sedashov},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-11 09:22:39 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-11 10:06:11 -0400},
	Note = {https://github.com/andreizhirnov/DAME},
	Title = {DAME: data-driven interpretation of interactive nonlinear models},
	Year = {2022}}

@article{:aa,
	Date-Added = {2022-04-11 09:22:10 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-11 09:22:10 -0400}}

@article{king2006dangers,
	Author = {King, Gary and Zeng, Langche},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-11 07:27:19 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-11 07:27:19 -0400},
	Journal = {Political analysis},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {131--159},
	Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	Title = {The dangers of extreme counterfactuals},
	Volume = {14},
	Year = {2006}}

@article{jung2020command,
	Author = {Jung, Yoo Sun and Souza, Fl{\'a}vio DS and Philips, Andrew Q and Rutherford, Amanda and Whitten, Guy D},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-11 07:11:49 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-11 07:11:49 -0400},
	Journal = {The Stata Journal},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {584--603},
	Publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA},
	Title = {A command to estimate and interpret models of dynamic compositional dependent variables: New features for dynsimpie},
	Volume = {20},
	Year = {2020}}

@article{philips2016dynsimpie,
	Author = {Philips, Andrew Q and Rutherford, Amanda and Whitten, Guy D},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-11 07:11:20 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-11 07:11:20 -0400},
	Journal = {The Stata Journal},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {662--677},
	Publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA},
	Title = {dynsimpie: A command to examine dynamic compositional dependent variables},
	Volume = {16},
	Year = {2016}}

@article{Rainey2021,
	Author = {Rainey, Carlisle and McCaskey, Kelly},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-08 10:13:18 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-08 10:13:26 -0400},
	Journal = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {549--564},
	Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	Title = {Estimating logit models with small samples},
	Volume = {9},
	Year = {2021}}

@book{Efron2021,
	Author = {Efron, Bradley and Hastie, Trevor},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-04 15:29:45 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-04 15:29:52 -0400},
	Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	Title = {Computer Age Statistical Inference, Student Edition: Algorithms, Evidence, and Data Science},
	Volume = {6},
	Year = {2021}}

@article{Rainey2016,
	Author = {Carlisle Rainey},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-03 17:27:49 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-03 17:27:54 -0400},
	Journal = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	Note = {Published online. Manuscript at \href{http://www.carlislerainey.com/papers/compress.pdf}{http://www.carlislerainey.com/papers/compress.pdf}},
	Title = {Compression and Conditional Effects},
	Year = {2016}}

@article{KingZeng2002,
	Author = {King, Gary and Zeng, Langche},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-03 17:24:47 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-03 17:24:57 -0400},
	Journal = {Statistics in medicine},
	Number = {10},
	Pages = {1409--1427},
	Publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
	Title = {Estimating risk and rate levels, ratios and differences in case-control studies},
	Volume = {21},
	Year = {2002}}

@article{Zhirnov2022,
	Author = {Zhirnov, Andrei and Moral, Mert and Sedashov, Evgeny},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-03 17:19:46 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-03 17:19:53 -0400},
	Journal = {Political Analysis},
	Pages = {1--22},
	Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	Title = {Taking Distributions Seriously: On the Interpretation of the Estimates of Interactive Nonlinear Models},
	Year = {2022}}

@article{Philips2016,
	Author = {Philips, Andrew Q and Rutherford, Amanda and Whitten, Guy D},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-03 17:16:51 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-03 17:16:59 -0400},
	Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {268--283},
	Publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
	Title = {Dynamic pie: A strategy for modeling trade-offs in compositional variables over time},
	Volume = {60},
	Year = {2016}}

@article{Tomz2002,
	Author = {Tomz, Michael and Tucker, Joshua A and Wittenberg, Jason},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-03 17:10:16 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-03 17:10:32 -0400},
	Journal = {Political Analysis},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {66--83},
	Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	Title = {An easy and accurate regression model for multiparty electoral data},
	Volume = {10},
	Year = {2002}}

@book{Greene2012,
	Address = {Upper Saddle River, New Jersey},
	Author = {William H. Greene},
	Date-Added = {2022-04-03 17:09:05 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2022-04-03 17:09:05 -0400},
	Edition = {7th},
	Publisher = {Prentice Hall},
	Title = {Econometric Analysis},
	Year = {2012}}

@book{vanderVaart2000,
	Author = {Van der Vaart, Aad W},
	Date-Added = {2022-01-19 12:11:13 -0500},
	Date-Modified = {2022-01-19 12:11:30 -0500},
	Publisher = {Cambridge university press},
	Title = {Asymptotic Statistics},
	Volume = {3},
	Year = {2000}}

@book{GelmanHill2006,
	Author = {Gelman, Andrew and Hill, Jennifer},
	Date-Added = {2022-01-19 12:09:41 -0500},
	Date-Modified = {2022-01-19 12:10:01 -0500},
	Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	Title = {Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models},
	Year = {2006}}

@article{AltmanMcDonald2003,
	Author = {Altman, Micah and McDonald, Michael P},
	Date-Added = {2018-10-05 09:32:04 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2018-10-05 09:32:26 -0400},
	Journal = {Political Analysis},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {302--307},
	Title = {Replication with Attention to Numerical Accuracy},
	Volume = {11},
	Year = {2003}}

@article{Nagler1991,
	Author = {Nagler, Jonathan},
	Date-Added = {2018-10-05 09:29:24 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2018-10-05 09:30:18 -0400},
	Journal = {The American Political Science Review},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {1393--1405},
	Title = {The Effect of Registration Laws and Education on US Voter Turnout},
	Volume = {85},
	Year = {1991}}

@book{CarseyHarden2013,
	Author = {Carsey, Thomas M and Harden, Jeffrey J},
	Date-Added = {2018-10-01 11:08:51 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2018-10-01 11:09:27 +0000},
	Publisher = {Sage Publications},
	Title = {Monte Carlo Simulation and Resampling Methods for Social Science},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{BramborClarkGolder2006,
	Author = {Brambor, Thomas and Clark, William Roberts and Golder, Matt},
	Date-Added = {2018-10-01 10:57:49 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2018-10-01 10:58:00 +0000},
	Journal = {Political analysis},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {63--82},
	Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	Title = {Understanding interaction models: Improving empirical analyses},
	Volume = {14},
	Year = {2006}}

@manual{margins,
	Author = {Thomas J. Leeper},
	Date-Added = {2018-10-01 10:34:13 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2018-10-01 10:34:13 +0000},
	Note = {R package version 0.3.23},
	Title = {margins: Marginal Effects for Model Objects},
	Year = {2018}}

@manual{R,
	Address = {Vienna, Austria},
	Author = {{R Core Team}},
	Date-Added = {2018-10-01 10:23:54 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2018-10-01 10:23:54 +0000},
	Organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
	Title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
	Url = {https://www.R-project.org/},
	Year = {2018},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {https://www.R-project.org/}}

@book{MASS,
	Address = {New York},
	Author = {W. N. Venables and B. D. Ripley},
	Date-Added = {2018-10-01 10:22:35 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2018-10-01 10:22:35 +0000},
	Edition = {Fourth},
	Note = {ISBN 0-387-95457-0},
	Publisher = {Springer},
	Title = {Modern Applied Statistics with S},
	Url = {http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/pub/MASS4},
	Year = {2002},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/pub/MASS4}}

@book{StataManual,
	Address = {College Station, TX},
	Author = {StataCorp},
	Date-Added = {2018-10-01 10:07:15 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2018-10-01 10:08:05 +0000},
	Publisher = {Stata Press},
	Title = {Stata 15 Base Reference Manual},
	Year = {2017}}

@article{WilliamsWhitten2011,
	Author = {Williams, Laron K and Whitten, Guy D},
	Date-Added = {2018-09-19 10:22:15 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2018-09-19 10:22:31 -0400},
	Journal = {Stata Journal},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {577--588},
	Publisher = {StataCorp LP},
	Title = {Dynamic simulations of autoregressive relationships},
	Volume = {11},
	Year = {2011}}

@article{WilliamsWhitten2012,
	Abstract = { Political scientists rarely take full advantage of the substantive inferences that they can draw from time-series cross-section data. Most studies have emphasized statistical significance and other standard inferences that can be drawn from single coefficients over one time period. We show that by simulating the quantities of interest over longer periods of time and across theoretically interesting scenarios, we can draw much richer inferences. In this article, we present a technique that produces graphs of dynamic simulations of relationships over time. Graphical simulations are useful because they represent long-term relationships between key variables and allow for examination of the impact of exogenous and/or endogenous shocks. We demonstrate the technique's utility by graphically representing key relationships from two different works. We also present a preliminary version of the dynsim command, which we have designed to extend the Clarify commands in order to produce dynamic simulations. },
	Author = {Williams, Laron K. and Whitten, Guy D.},
	Date-Added = {2018-09-19 10:20:12 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2018-09-19 10:20:30 -0400},
	Doi = {10.1017/S0022381612000473},
	Journal = {The Journal of Politics},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {685-693},
	Title = {But Wait, There's More! Maximizing Substantive Inferences from TSCS Models},
	Volume = {74},
	Year = {2012},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381612000473}}

@article{Licht2011,
	Author = {Licht, Amanda A.},
	Date-Added = {2018-09-19 10:11:14 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2018-09-19 10:11:23 -0400},
	Doi = {10.1093/pan/mpq039},
	Journal = {Political Analysis},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {227--243},
	Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	Title = {Change Comes with Time: Substantive Interpretation of Nonproportional Hazards in Event History Analysis},
	Volume = {19},
	Year = {2011},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpq039}}

@article{Gandrud2015,
	Author = {Gandrud, Christopher},
	Date-Added = {2018-09-19 10:09:13 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2018-09-19 10:10:15 -0400},
	Journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {1--20},
	Title = {simPH: An R Package for Showing Estimates from Cox Proportional Hazard Models including for Interactive and Nonlinear Effects},
	Volume = {65},
	Year = {2015}}

@article{ImaiKingLau2008,
	Author = {Imai, Kosuke and King, Gary and Lau, Olivia},
	Date-Added = {2018-09-19 10:00:15 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2018-09-19 10:00:32 -0400},
	Journal = {Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {892--913},
	Publisher = {Taylor \& Francis},
	Title = {Toward a common framework for statistical analysis and development},
	Volume = {17},
	Year = {2008}}

@article{Sartori2003,
	Author = {Sartori, Anne E},
	Date-Added = {2018-09-19 09:34:12 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2018-09-19 09:34:55 -0400},
	Journal = {Political Analysis},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {111--138},
	Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	Title = {An Estimator for Some Binary-Outcome Selection Models Without Exclusion Restrictions},
	Volume = {11},
	Year = {2003}}

@article{Firth1993,
	Author = {David Firth},
	Journal = {Biometrika},
	Number = {1},
	Owner = {carlislerainey},
	Pages = {27-38},
	Timestamp = {2014.04.09},
	Title = {Bias Reduction of Maximum Likelihood Estimates},
	Volume = {80},
	Year = {1993}}

@manual{Choiratetal,
	Author = {Christine Choirat and James Honaker and Kosuke Imai and Gary King and Olivia Lau},
	Date-Added = {2018-08-13 16:14:40 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2018-08-13 16:16:00 -0400},
	Note = {Version},
	Title = {Zelig: Everyone's Statistical Software},
	Url = {http://zeligproject.org/},
	Year = {2018},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://zeligproject.org/}}

@article{AiNorton2003,
	Author = {Ai, Chunrong and Norton, Edward C.},
	Doi = {10.1016/s0165-1765(03)00032-6},
	Journal = {Economics Letters},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {123--129},
	Title = {Interaction Terms in Logit and Probit Models},
	Volume = {80},
	Year = {2003},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s0165-1765(03)00032-6}}

@article{BeckKatzTucker1998,
	Author = {Nathaniel Beck and Jonathan N. Katz and Richard Tucker},
	Date-Added = {2018-01-05 20:11:37 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2018-01-05 20:13:04 +0000},
	Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {1260-1288},
	Title = {Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variables},
	Volume = {42},
	Year = {1998}}

@article{BerryDeMerittEsarey2010,
	Author = {William D. Berry and Jacqueline H. R. DeMeritt and Justin Esarey},
	Date-Added = {2014-08-22 13:37:17 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2014-08-22 13:38:21 +0000},
	Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {105-119},
	Title = {Testing for Interaction in Binary Logit and Probit Models: Is a Product Term Essential},
	Volume = {54},
	Year = {2010}}

@book{CasellaBerger2002,
	Address = {Pacific Grove, CA},
	Author = {George Casella and Roger L. Berger},
	Date-Added = {2011-11-15 12:56:13 -0500},
	Date-Modified = {2015-10-07 13:19:30 +0000},
	Edition = {2nd},
	Publisher = {Duxbury},
	Title = {Statistical Inference},
	Year = {2002}}

@book{EfronTibshirani1993,
	Address = {New York},
	Author = {Bradley Efron and Robert J. Tibshirani},
	Date-Added = {2016-02-15 14:20:15 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2016-02-15 14:34:32 +0000},
	Publisher = {Chapman and Hall},
	Title = {An Introduction to the Bootstrap},
	Year = {1993}}

@article{GeorgeEpstein1992,
	Author = {Tracey E. George and Lee Epstein},
	Date-Added = {2015-08-12 20:05:49 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2015-08-12 20:06:50 +0000},
	Journal = {American Political Science Review},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {323-337},
	Title = {On the Nature of Supreme Court Decision Making},
	Volume = {86},
	Year = {1992}}

@article{HanmerKalkan2013,
	Author = {Michael J. Hanmer and Kerem Ozan Kalkan},
	Date-Added = {2014-08-22 13:19:47 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2014-08-23 09:02:16 +0000},
	Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {263-277},
	Title = {Behind the Curve: Clarifying the Best Approach to Calculating Predicted Probabilities and Marginal Effects from Limited Dependent Variable Models},
	Volume = {57},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{Herron1999,
	Author = {Michael C. Herron},
	Date-Added = {2018-01-05 20:13:26 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2018-01-05 20:15:06 +0000},
	Journal = {Political Analysis},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {83-98},
	Title = {Postestimation Uncertainty in Limited Dependent Variable Models},
	Volume = {8},
	Year = {1999}}

@article{Holland2015,
	Author = {Holland, Alisha C.},
	Doi = {10.1111/ajps.12125},
	Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {357--371},
	Title = {The Distributive Politics of Enforcement},
	Volume = {59},
	Year = {2015},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12125}}

@article{HuangShields2000,
	Author = {Huang, Chi and Shields, Todd G.},
	Doi = {10.1177/1532673x00028001005},
	Journal = {American Politics Quarterly},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {80--95},
	Title = {Interpretation of Interaction Effects in Logit and Probit Analyses},
	Volume = {28},
	Year = {2000},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673x00028001005}}

@article{KatzKing1999,
	Abstract = {We propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analagous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. We also provide new graphical representations for data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. We illustrate the use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size of and trend in electoral advantage of incumbency in Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, all based on measures now known to be biased, we demonstrate that the advantage is small but meaningful, varies substantially across the parties, and is not growing. Finally, we show how to estimate the party from which each party{\textquoteright}s advantage is predominantly drawn.},
	Author = {Jonathan Katz and Gary King},
	Journal = {American Political Science Review},
	Month = {March},
	Pages = {15-32},
	Title = {A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data},
	Volume = {93},
	Year = {1999}}

@book{King1989,
	Address = {Ann Arbor},
	Author = {Gary King},
	Organization = {Michigan University Press},
	Owner = {carlislerainey},
	Publisher = {Michigan University Press},
	Timestamp = {2014.04.07},
	Title = {Unifying Political Methodology: The Likelihood Theory of Statistical Inference},
	Year = {1998}}

@article{KingTomzWittenberg2000,
	Author = {Gary King and Michael Tomz and Jason Wittenberg},
	Date-Added = {2014-08-22 13:17:50 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2014-08-22 13:19:27 +0000},
	Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {341-355},
	Title = {Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation},
	Volume = {44},
	Year = {2000}}

@article{KrinskyRobb1991,
	Author = {Krinsky, Itzhack and Robb, A. Leslie},
	Doi = {10.1007/bf01193491},
	Journal = {Empirical Economics},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {199--209},
	Title = {Three Methods for Calculating the Statistical Properties of Elasticities: A Comparison},
	Volume = {16},
	Year = {1991},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01193491}}

@book{Long1997,
	Address = {Thousand Oaks, CA},
	Author = {J. Scott Long},
	Date-Added = {2015-07-10 15:55:34 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2015-07-10 15:57:14 +0000},
	Publisher = {Sage},
	Series = {Advanced Quantitative Techniques in the Social Sciences},
	Title = {Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables},
	Year = {1997}}

@article{Mebane2000,
	Author = {Mebane, Walter R.},
	Doi = {10.2307/2586379},
	Journal = {American Political Science Review},
	Number = {01},
	Pages = {37--57},
	Title = {Coordination, Moderation, and Institutional Balancing in American Presidential and House Elections},
	Volume = {94},
	Year = {2000},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.2307/2586379}}

@article{Nagler1994,
	Author = {Jonathan Nagler},
	Date-Added = {2015-04-04 23:32:55 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2015-04-04 23:33:50 +0000},
	Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {230-255},
	Title = {Scobit: An Alternative Estimator to Logit and Probit},
	Volume = {38},
	Year = {1994}}

@article{Rainey2017,
	Author = {Carlisle Rainey},
	Date-Added = {2017-11-16 15:57:39 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2017-11-16 15:59:17 +0000},
	Journal = {Political Analysis},
	Pages = {402-409},
	Title = {Transformation-Induced Bias: Unbiased Coefficients Do Not Imply Unbiased Quantities of Interest},
	Volume = {25},
	Year = {2017}}

@article{TomzWittenbergKing2003,
	Author = {Michael Tomz and Jason Wittenberg and Gary King},
	Date-Added = {2014-08-22 13:39:34 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2014-08-22 13:40:16 +0000},
	Journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	Number = {1},
	Title = {Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results},
	Volume = {8},
	Year = {2003}}

@book{WolfingerRosenstone1980,
	Author = {Raymond E. Wolfinger and Steven J. Rosenstone},
	Date-Added = {2010-04-23 10:42:09 -0400},
	Date-Modified = {2010-04-23 10:43:02 -0400},
	Publisher = {Yale University Press},
	Title = {Who Votes?},
	Year = {1980}}
